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Miami Hurricanes vs Louisville Cardinals (-3.5) – Preview

5:45p
227
Miami (Florida)
228
Louisville

The weekend will offer a handful of NCAA bowl games, but one of the more interesting ones to keep an eye on will be Miami and Louisville in the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando.

Louisville may be coming in as the 3 ½ point favorite, but this one has the potential to be a back and forth game for both teams. Just three hours away from Orlando, Miami fans will surely make the short drive north to see a Hurricanes squad that finished 9-3. That record is the best the Hurricanes have posted since 2010, which was also the last time they made a bowl game.

Louisville may have to travel further than Miami in this one, but that’s not to say they aren’t up to the challenge. Ranked as the number 18 team in the nation, the Cardinals have amassed an 11-1 record on the season. And if it wasn’t for a 38-35 loss to UCF in mid-October, Louisville very well could’ve been an undefeated team.

The Cardinals are led by Teddy Bridgewater, the quarterback who some say could be the top pick in Aprils NFL Draft. Bridgewater is originally from Miami, and had committed to the Hurricanes before deciding to go with Louisville instead. Despite not making a BCS Bowl or being a Heisman candidate, a win in Orlando could be the perfect way for Bridgewater to finish his career before heading to the NFL.

For the Hurricanes, they are led by Stephen Morris, the senior quarterback who has thrown for 2,868 yards and 21 touchdowns. They’ll also look for sophomore Duke Johnson to carry the load in the backfield. Johnson has run for 920 yards on 145 attempts this season, and notched 6 touchdowns.

This will be Louisville’s last game as a member of the American Athletic Conference, as they will move to the ACC next year. And this game against Miami should give them a good idea of how they’ll fair against fellow ACC opponents.

he Miami Hurricanes and the Louisville Cardinals will both be trying to pick up a win on December 28 when they battle at Florida Citrus Bowl in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

Oddsmakers currently have the Cardinals listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Hurricanes, while the game’s total has not yet been posted.

Miami was a 41-31 winner in their most recent outing on the road against Pittsburgh. They covered the 1-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (72) made winners of OVER bettors.

In their last action, Louisville was a 31-24 winner on the road against Cincinnati. They covered the 3-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (55) was profitable news for OVER bettors.

Recent Results in the Hurricanes/Cardinals Series

Date AwayTeam Score HomeTeam Score HomeLine Total
September 16, 2006 Miami – FL 7 Louisville 31
October 14, 2004 Louisville 38 Miami – FL 41

When looking at the last 2 games in this series, we can see the home team has won 2 games compared to 0 wins for the road team. Average points scored per game for the home team in the Miami – FL/Louisville series is 36 ppg while the vistor has put up 22.5 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 13.5 favoring the home team.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last 2 games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 13.5 ppg. That represents a value number of 10 when meassured against the offered line of -3.5, suggesting a wager on Louisville makes the most sense – at least, when looking at betting against the number according to the historical series trends.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 2 games between the Hurricanes and the Cardinals is 58.5 per game. That creates a face value cushion of 0.5 against the line, suggesting a bet of Over 58.0 may be in order. At least it appears as such on first impression when compared to the series history.

Now let’s take a look at the series history in this exact situation, with Miami – FL as the road team and with Louisville as the home team.

Recent Results when Miami – FL visits Louisville

Date AwayTeam Score HomeTeam Score HomeLine Total
September 16, 2006 Miami – FL 7 Louisville 31

When looking at the last 1 games in this series while Louisville has been the home team, we can see the Cardinals have won 1 games compared to 0 wins for the Hurricanes. Average points scored per game by Louisville in this situation is is 31 ppg while Miami – FL has put up 7 ppg, creating an average margin of victory of 24 favoring the Cardinals.

As stated, the exact advantage spanning the last games represents a median average advantage for the home team in this series of 24 ppg. That represents a value number of 20.5 when meassured against the offered line of -3.5, suggesting a wager on the Cardinals makes the most sense. At least, that’s the way it looks when you ponder a bet against the line, looking at this wager in the vacuum of this series situation.

The average Total points scored spanning the last 1 games between the Hurricanes and the Cardinals is 38 per game. That creates a differential of 20 against the line, suggesting a bet of Under 58.0 may hold the greatest value. At least in relation to the series history.

Can the Miami – FL Hurricanes Cover the Spread?

This season the Miami – FL Hurricanes have played 12 games, averaging 35.9 points per game, while allowing 26.0 points per game. This has led to a season record of 9-3. Let’s have a closer look at recent Miami – FL Hurricanes results.

Recent Miami – FL Hurricanes Results

Date AwayTeam Score HomeTeam Score HomeLine Total
November 29, 2013 Miami – FL 41 Pittsburgh 31 1.5 56.0
November 23, 2013 Virginia 26 Miami – FL 45 -20.5 58.0
November 16, 2013 Miami – FL 30 Duke 48 3.5 62.0
November 9, 2013 Virginia Tech 42 Miami – FL 24 -4.5 43.5
November 2, 2013 Miami – FL 14 Florida St. 41 -21.0 64.0
October 26, 2013 Wake Forest 21 Miami – FL 24 -24.0 54.0
October 17, 2013 Miami – FL 27 North Carolina 23 9.5 64.0

This season the Miami – FL Hurricanes have played 5 games on the road, averaging 32.2 points per game, while allowing 32.8 points per game. This has led to a season record of 3-2. Let’s have a closer look at recent Miami – FL Hurricanes results on the road.

Recent Miami – FL Hurricanes Road Results

Date AwayTeam Score HomeTeam Score HomeLine Total
November 29, 2013 Miami – FL 41 Pittsburgh 31 1.5 56.0
November 16, 2013 Miami – FL 30 Duke 48 3.5 62.0
November 2, 2013 Miami – FL 14 Florida St. 41 -21.0 64.0
October 17, 2013 Miami – FL 27 North Carolina 23 9.5 64.0
September 28, 2013 Miami – FL 49 South Florida 21 16.5 48.0

Can the Louisville Cardinals Cover the Spread?

This season the Louisville Cardinals have played 12 games, averaging 35.1 points per game, while allowing 12.4 points per game. This has led to a season record of 11-3. Let’s have a closer look at recent Louisville Cardinals results.

Recent Louisville Cardinals Results

Date AwayTeam Score HomeTeam Score HomeLine Total
December 5, 2013 Louisville 31 Cincinnati 24 3.0 50.0
November 23, 2013 Memphis 17 Louisville 24 -23.5 43.5
November 16, 2013 Houston 13 Louisville 20 -16.5 60.5
November 8, 2013 Louisville 31 Connecticut 10 27.5 49.0
October 26, 2013 Louisville 34 South Florida 3 20.0 46.5
October 18, 2013 Central Florida 38 Louisville 35 -14.5 52.5
October 10, 2013 Rutgers 10 Louisville 24 -19.0 56.0
October 5, 2013 Louisville 30 Temple 7 32.5 58.5
September 21, 2013 Fla-International 0 Louisville 72 -41.0 55.5
September 14, 2013 Louisville 27 Kentucky 13 14.5 60.5

This season the Louisville Cardinals have played 7 games here at home, averaging 38.3 points per game, while allowing 13.1 points per game. This has led to a season record of 6-1. Let’s have a closer look at recent Louisville Cardinals results when playing at home.

Recent Louisville Cardinals Home Results

Date AwayTeam Score HomeTeam Score HomeLine Total
November 23, 2013 Memphis 17 Louisville 24 -23.5 43.5
November 16, 2013 Houston 13 Louisville 20 -16.5 60.5
October 18, 2013 Central Florida 38 Louisville 35 -14.5 52.5
October 10, 2013 Rutgers 10 Louisville 24 -19.0 56.0
September 21, 2013 Fla-International 0 Louisville 72 -41.0 55.5
September 7, 2013 Eastern Kentucky 7 Louisville 44
September 1, 2013 Ohio 7 Louisville 49 -21.0 58.0
November 24, 2012 Connecticut 23 Louisville 20 -10.5 45.5
November 3, 2012 Temple 17 Louisville 45 -15.5 53.5
October 26, 2012 Cincinnati 31 Louisville 34 -3.5 51.5

Team records:
Miami: 9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS
Louisville: 11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS

Miami most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 4-6
When an underdog on the road are 4-6

Louisville most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When favored at home are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games
Miami is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville’s last 5 games
Louisville is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games