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NFL Playoffs: Spread, Odds, and Analysis-Saints (+8) vs SeaHawks

Three things to know about the New Orleans Saints’ matchup at the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday in the NFC divisional round at CenturyLink Field:

1. Embarrassing memory: This is a rematch of a game played just five weeks ago — and it was by far the Saints’ ugliest performance of the season, a 34-7 loss on “Monday Night Football.” The Saints’ normally potent offense gained just 188 yards, and an early sack-fumble set the tone. The defense was just as Embarrassing. It over rotated to stop running back Marshawn Lynch, but got burned by play-action fakes and Russell Wilson’s powerful arm and legs.

Obviously it’s safe to expect a much better performance from the Saints this time. But will it be good enough? The Saints showed reason for optimism with the way they won their first playoff game Saturday in chilly Philadelphia — relying on their run game, defense and special teams as much as they relied on Drew Brees.

2. Battered secondary: The Saints had the No. 2-ranked pass defense in the NFL this season (behind the No. 1-ranked Seahawks). But they keep losing their best defensive backs to injuries. Cornerback Jabari Greer suffered a season-ending knee injury in November, then safety Kenny Vaccaro suffered a season-ending ankle injury in December. Now top cornerback Keenan Lewis will be questionable after leaving Saturday’s playoff win with a concussion. Judging by the way he was pleading to stay in the game, it’s possible the concussion wasn’t too serious. But those types of injuries are impossible to predict. The Saints are extremely light behind Lewis — as the Eagles proved by attacking deep after Lewis left.

3. Saints can run: Seattle’s top-ranked pass defense obviously caused problems for Brees, tight end Jimmy Graham & Co. in that first meeting. But the Saints proved at Philly that they can trust their run game if needed. They ran for 185 yards on 36 carries, led by a huge effort from resurgent running back Mark Ingram (18 carries for 97 yards and a touchdown). Whether or not running back Pierre Thomas is able to return from a back injury, the Saints obviously have multiple options they can feature.

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Teams Line PF/PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY
111: NEW ORLEANS
112: SEATTLE
47.5
-7.5
25.9 / 19.3
26.1 / 14.4
12-5
13-3
9-8-0
11-5-0
6-11-0
7-9-0
97.6
136.8
303.8
202.2
401.5
339.0
109.8
101.0
193.0
172.0
302.8
273.0
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
Power Rating
Estimate Edge
NEW ORLEANS
SEATTLE -9
Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.
NEW ORLEANS – Recent ATS Trends
Against the spread Over/Under Straight Up
Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992
Description W-L W-L W-L O-U O-U O-U W-L W-L W-L
as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points 0-1 1-4 50-41 0-1 3-2 46-46 0-1 0-5 31-62
in all games 9-8 30-21 180-179 6-11 27-24 192-170 12-5 33-18 185-180
in all lined games 9-8 30-21 180-179 6-11 27-24 192-170 12-5 33-18 185-180
as an underdog 2-3 6-8 87-84 1-4 7-7 93-81 2-3 5-9 62-114
as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points 0-0 1-0 10-8 0-0 1-0 10-8 0-0 0-1 5-13
in road games 2-7 10-16 94-87 2-7 12-14 98-84 4-5 12-14 87-96
in road lined games 2-7 10-16 94-87 2-7 12-14 98-84 4-5 12-14 87-96
in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points 0-4 2-7 17-20 1-3 5-4 23-14 1-3 3-6 18-19
in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points 5-5 10-8 65-65 4-6 9-9 69-61 6-4 11-7 64-67
against conference opponents 7-6 22-17 132-139 2-11 20-19 146-126 10-3 25-14 140-135
when playing on a Saturday 1-0 1-1 6-7 0-1 1-1 8-5 1-0 1-1 6-7
when playing with 6 or less days rest 6-7 22-17 138-138 4-9 19-20 146-134 9-4 25-14 141-141
against NFC West division opponents 1-3 1-6 11-16 0-4 3-4 17-9 2-2 2-5 15-12
in games played on turf 7-6 23-13 117-126 6-7 21-15 129-115 9-4 25-11 130-117
in January games 1-0 3-1 6-12 0-1 3-1 12-6 1-0 3-1 8-10
in playoff games 1-0 2-1 5-7 0-1 2-1 10-2 1-0 2-1 7-5
revenging a loss against opponent 2-1 4-4 47-48 0-3 3-5 50-45 3-0 4-4 46-50
after 2 or more consecutive wins 3-3 12-9 45-43 2-4 11-10 47-41 4-2 14-7 52-36
when playing against a team with a winning record 5-4 15-9 65-64 3-6 12-12 75-55 6-3 16-8 56-76
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season 3-3 11-7 40-46 1-5 9-9 49-37 4-2 12-6 35-52
SEATTLE – Recent ATS Trends
Against the spread Over/Under Straight Up
Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992 Current Last 3 Since 1992
Description W-L W-L W-L O-U O-U O-U W-L W-L W-L
as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points 4-1 9-1 41-44 2-3 6-4 41-42 4-1 9-1 59-26
in all games 11-5 34-15 179-176 7-9 26-24 192-169 13-3 32-18 180-186
in all lined games 11-5 34-15 179-176 7-9 26-24 192-169 13-3 32-18 180-186
as a favorite 10-5 17-10 83-84 7-8 14-13 81-87 13-2 21-6 119-52
as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points 0-1 2-1 12-9 0-1 2-1 11-9 0-1 2-1 15-6
in home games 5-3 18-6 95-84 4-4 14-10 95-84 7-1 19-5 112-71
in home lined games 5-3 18-6 95-84 4-4 14-10 95-84 7-1 19-5 112-71
in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points 1-0 1-0 9-7 0-1 0-1 7-11 1-0 1-0 11-7
in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points 5-3 16-4 65-53 2-6 8-12 65-54 6-2 15-5 66-55
against conference opponents 9-3 28-10 138-136 4-8 18-20 148-128 10-2 25-13 141-140
when playing on a Saturday 0-0 1-0 7-4 0-0 0-1 6-6 0-0 0-1 7-5
against NFC South division opponents 3-1 6-1 17-10 1-3 3-4 14-13 4-0 5-2 17-10
off a division game 3-2 9-7 57-83 2-3 8-8 80-62 5-0 11-5 65-78
after a bye week 1-0 1-1 7-17 0-1 1-2 16-9 1-0 1-2 8-17
in games played on turf 8-5 24-12 81-87 6-7 20-16 90-78 11-2 24-12 85-84
in January games 0-0 2-1 10-9 0-0 2-1 11-9 0-0 1-2 9-12
in playoff games 0-0 2-0 8-5 0-0 1-1 8-6 0-0 1-1 6-8
off a win against a division rival 1-2 5-4 24-45 2-1 6-3 40-28 3-0 7-2 31-38
when playing against a team with a winning record 3-3 14-4 69-66 2-4 11-7 83-55 3-3 11-7 54-84
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season 2-1 10-1 49-35 0-3 6-5 49-37 1-2 7-4 35-51
Team Statistics
Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green.
NEW ORLEANS – Current Season Performance
Straight Up Against Spread Team Opponent
W-L Units W-L O-U Score Half Yards YPP TO Score Half Yards YPP TO
All Games 12-5 +4.2 9-8 6-11 25.9 14.5 401.5 (6.2) 1.2 19.3 12.1 302.8 (5.4) 1.1
Road Games 4-5 -3.8 2-7 2-7 18.7 9.7 364.3 (5.6) 1.6 22.6 14.3 331.7 (5.8) 0.7
Last 3 Games 2-1 +1.3 2-1 1-2 27.0 13.3 422.3 (6.3) 1.3 19.3 9.3 256.0 (5) 0.7
Turf Games 0-3 -4.3 0-3 2-1 18.0 9.3 318.7 (5.3) 1.7 30.0 21.3 381.0 (5.7) 0.3
NEW ORLEANS – Current Season Statistics
Rushing Passing Total
PPG Half FD TOP ATT-YDS YPR CMP-ATT PCT YDS PYA ATT-YDS YPP YPPT
Offense (All Games) 25.9 14.5 22.6 32:48 25-98 (3.9) 27-40 68.4% 304 (7.6) 65-401 (6.2) (15.5)
Opponents Defensive Avg. 22.4 11 20 30:28 27-113 (4.2) 22-35 62.1% 235 (6.6) 62-348 (5.6) (15.6)
Offense Road Games 18.7 9.7 20.9 31:38 24-92 (3.9) 26-41 64.1% 272 (6.6) 65-364 (5.6) (19.5)
Defense (All Games) 19.3 12.1 17.1 27:12 24-110 (4.6) 19-32 60.6% 193 (6.1) 56-303 (5.4) (15.7)
Opponents Offensive Avg. 23.1 11.9 19.5 30:57 27-115 (4.2) 21-33 61.4% 219 (6.5) 61-334 (5.5) (14.5)
Defense Road Games 22.6 14.3 18.1 28:22 28-124 (4.4) 19-29 64.5% 208 (7.1) 58-332 (5.8) (14.7)
NEW ORLEANS – Turnovers, Penalties and Special Teams Statistics
Turnovers Lost Third Downs Fourth Downs Kickoff Returns Punt Returns Penalties
INT FL TO DIFF #-MADE PCT #-MADE PCT KR-YDS YPKR PR-YDS YPPR PEN-YDS
Stats For (All Games) 0.8 0.4 1.2 -0.1 14-6 44.4% 1-1 47.4% 2-36 (23.2) 2-13 (6.5) 6-53
Opponents Avg. Stats Against 1.1 0.6 1.7 2.2 14-5 39.1% 1-0 45.9% 2-49 (22.1) 19-2 (8.9) 6-55
Stats For (Road Games) 1.2 0.3 1.6 -0.9 14-5 38.0% 1-1 46.2% 2-41 (20.4) 2-9 (6.1) 6-53
Stats Against (All Games) 0.7 0.4 1.1 12-4 34.1% 1-0 42.9% 2-56 (25.1) 1-12 (8.4) 6-46
Opponents Avg. Stats For 1 0.6 1.6 13-5 37.6% 1-0 46.9% 2-51 (22.7) 19-2 (9.5) 6-53
Stats Against (Road Games) 0.3 0.3 0.7 13-5 36.3% 1-0 50.0% 2-58 (25) 2-12 (6.8) 6-49

SEATTLE – Current Season Performance
Straight Up Against Spread Team Opponent
W-L Units W-L O-U Score Half Yards YPP TO Score Half Yards YPP TO
All Games 13-3 +5.2 11-5 7-9 26.1 13.1 339.0 (5.8) 1.2 14.4 8.1 273.0 (4.6) 2.4
Home Games 7-1 +1.7 5-3 4-4 29.1 13.7 350.1 (5.8) 1.2 13.7 6.7 254.2 (4.4) 2.6
Last 3 Games 2-1 -1.3 2-1 0-3 20.0 9.7 262.7 (4.7) 1.0 8.7 1.0 215.3 (3.9) 3.7
Turf Games 8-1 +2.7 6-3 4-5 28.4 13.7 347.6 (5.8) 1.2 12.2 6.0 246.1 (4.4) 2.9
SEATTLE – Current Season Statistics
Rushing Passing Total
PPG Half FD TOP ATT-YDS YPR CMP-ATT PCT YDS PYA ATT-YDS YPP YPPT
Offense (All Games) 26.1 13.1 19.2 30:32 32-137 (4.3) 17-26 63.6% 202 (7.7) 58-339 (5.8) (13)
Opponents Defensive Avg. 22.6 11.6 19.7 30:11 27-108 (4) 22-35 62.6% 231 (6.6) 62-339 (5.5) (15)
Offense Home Games 29.1 13.7 20.7 31:05 34-139 (4.1) 17-26 64.6% 211 (8.2) 60-350 (5.8) (12)
Defense (All Games) 14.4 8.1 17.6 30:37 26-101 (3.8) 19-33 59.0% 172 (5.3) 59-273 (4.6) (18.9)
Opponents Offensive Avg. 22.1 11.3 19.1 30:07 27-107 (4.1) 21-34 61.0% 222 (6.5) 61-330 (5.4) (14.9)
Defense Home Games 13.7 6.7 15.5 29:46 27-94 (3.5) 18-31 57.1% 160 (5.2) 57-254 (4.4) (18.5)
SEATTLE – Turnovers, Penalties and Special Teams Statistics
Turnovers Lost Third Downs Fourth Downs Kickoff Returns Punt Returns Penalties
INT FL TO DIFF #-MADE PCT #-MADE PCT KR-YDS YPKR PR-YDS YPPR PEN-YDS
Stats For (All Games) 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.2 13-5 37.3% 1-0 54.5% 2-44 (21.2) 3-36 (11.4) 8-75
Opponents Avg. Stats Against 0.9 0.7 1.6 2.1 13-5 37.9% 1-0 48.8% 2-54 (23.2) 20-2 (8.9) 6-55
Stats For (Home Games) 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.4 13-5 38.2% 1-0 66.7% 3-61 (23.1) 3-32 (10.6) 7-71
Stats Against (All Games) 1.7 0.7 2.4 13-5 35.2% 1-0 36.4% 3-66 (24) 1-5 (4.2) 6-55
Opponents Avg. Stats For 1.1 0.6 1.6 13-5 37.0% 1-0 47.9% 2-54 (23.3) 18-2 (8.5) 6-52
Stats Against (Home Games) 2.0 0.6 2.6 14-5 33.9% 1-0 28.6% 3-68 (23.5) 1-8 (5.5) 8-64
Average power rating of opponents played: NEW ORLEANS 21.6,  SEATTLE 20.8
Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.
NEW ORLEANS – Season Results
Team Stats Opp Stats
Date Opponent Score SU Line ATS Tot. O/U Rushing Passing TO Rushing Passing TO
11/17/2013 SAN FRANCISCO 23-20 W -3.5 L 49.5 U 23-92 30-43-295 3 22-81 17-31-115 1
11/21/2013 @ ATLANTA 17-13 W -7.5 L 52.5 U 25-103 23-33-271 0 22-91 30-39-264 1
12/2/2013 @ SEATTLE 7-34 L 6.5 L 48 U 17-44 23-38-144 1 38-127 22-30-302 0
12/8/2013 CAROLINA 31-13 W -3 W 47 U 17-69 30-42-304 0 23-128 22-34-111 0
12/15/2013 @ ST LOUIS 16-27 L -7 L 48 U 20-61 39-56-371 3 34-144 14-20-158 0
12/22/2013 @ CAROLINA 13-17 L 3 L 44 U 30-126 30-45-239 2 18-81 13-22-141 1
12/29/2013 TAMPA BAY 42-17 W -10.5 W 46.5 O 30-98 24-31-370 0 18-75 22-42-215 1
1/4/2014 @ PHILADELPHIA 26-24 W 3 W 55.5 U 36-185 20-30-249 2 22-80 23-33-176 0
1/11/2014 @ SEATTLE
SEATTLE – Season Results
Team Stats Opp Stats
Date Opponent Score SU Line ATS Tot. O/U Rushing Passing TO Rushing Passing TO
11/17/2013 MINNESOTA 41-20 W -13.5 W 45 O 28-93 14-21-230 0 33-132 18-35-204 4
12/2/2013 NEW ORLEANS 34-7 W -6.5 W 48 U 38-127 22-30-302 0 17-44 23-38-144 1
12/8/2013 @ SAN FRANCISCO 17-19 L 2.5 W 41.5 U 23-86 15-25-178 1 33-163 15-29-155 1
12/15/2013 @ NY GIANTS 23-0 W -8.5 W 43.5 U 34-134 20-29-193 1 14-25 22-35-156 5
12/22/2013 ARIZONA 10-17 L -8 L 42.5 U 20-103 11-27-89 2 43-139 13-25-168 4
12/29/2013 ST LOUIS 27-9 W -11.5 W 41 U 36-111 15-23-158 0 18-13 21-30-145 2
1/11/2014 NEW ORLEANS
Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.
All games in this series since 1992
SEATTLE is 5-3 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1992
SEATTLE is 5-3 straight up against NEW ORLEANS since 1992
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
All games played at SEATTLE since 1992
SEATTLE is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1992
SEATTLE is 4-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS since 1992
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games played at SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Rushing Passing Turnovers Penalties
Date Teams Score Line Result Half FD TOP ATT-YDS CMP-ATT YDS FL INT PEN-YDS
12/2/2013 NEW ORLEANS 7 48 Under 7 12 26:22 17-44 23-38 144 1 0 7-52
SEATTLE 34 -6.5 SU ATS 27 23 33:38 38-127 22-30 302 0 0 8-66
Team Line Action – Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring Nobody in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NEW ORLEANS games 46.1% of the time since 1992. (124-145)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NEW ORLEANS games 34.1% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (14-27)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SEATTLE games 57% of the time since 1992. (147-111)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SEATTLE games 57.1% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (20-15)
No Edge.
As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring nothing on the total in this game
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEW ORLEANS games 50.5% of the time since 1992. (144-141)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in NEW ORLEANS games 57.1% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (24-18)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SEATTLE games 48.9% of the time since 1992. (139-145)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SEATTLE games 33.3% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (15-30)
No Edge.

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